euro1   71

Work Package 7

WP 7: Assessment of Arctic permafrost future vulnerability and feedback to the climate system

Using CMIP5 climate change simulations, the Improved Dynamic Global Vegetation Models will be used in an offline mode to estimate the likelihood of permafrost destabilisation and release of CO2 and/or  CH4 to the atmosphere. The simulated carbon balance will also be used to re-evaluate compatible emission scenarios and thus assess the risk of not achieving stabilization.

Global climate model simulations  will be performed to assess the change in permafrost dynamics and its feedback to the global climate. Contributions from biophysical feedback (via, e.g., snow, vegetation cover), and from biogeochemical  feedback (via CO2 and CH4 emissions) will be identified. Coupled simulations beyond 2100, extending to 2300, will be performed to assess the risk of irreversible climate change linked to permafrost dynamics.


WP Coordinator:

University of Exeter

Principal Investigator:

Pierre Friedlingstein